城市土地景观格局变化及其驱动力分析

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摘要 作为长江中下游典型沿江城市代表，研究芜湖市土地利用景观格局变化对区域环境保护、资源利用和经济发展具有重要意义。选择芜湖市1995、2005和2015年的TM影像作為基础数据，在RS和GIS的技术支持下提取土地利用数据，计算景观指数分析土地利用景观格局特征和景观破碎化过程，采用转移矩阵和不稳定斑块图谱分析景观类型变化和稳定性，并分析驱动力因素。结果表明：芜湖市景观格局类型以耕地、林地、建设用地和水域为主，景观指数表明20年里景观格局变化显著。各类土地景观相互转化明显，且随时间变化转化关系愈发复杂，耕地面积减少，林地面积增加逐渐取代耕地的主导地位，耕地和林地同为最主要的转入者和转出者；草地和未利用地的转移概率最高，最易转化；水域和建设用地较为稳定。20年时间跨度里芜湖市景观格局破碎化速度加快、程度加深，且在时间和空间上都表现出不稳定性增强。而这些变化都在降水与气温变化、人口与社会经济增长以及政府决策等多重因素的共同驱动下形成。

关键词 土地利用；景观格局；景观指数；破碎化；芜湖市

中图分类号 K928.5；X321 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2018）06-0055-07

The Change of Urban Landscape Pattern and Its Driving Forces—A Case Study in Wuhu City，Anhui Province

ZHU Kaiqun，ZHU Yongheng，WANG Mengtian （College of Territorial Resources and Tourism，Anhui Normal University，Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention Research of Anhui Province，Wuhu，Anhui 241003）

Abstract As a representative of mediumsized cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River，it is of great significance to study the change of land use landscape pattern in Wuhu for promoting regional environmental protection，resource utilization and economic development.This paper selected the TM images of Wuhu City in 1995，2005，and 2015 as the basic data，extracted the land use data with the technical support of RS and GIS.The landscape indices were used to analyze the landscape pattern characteristics of land use and the processes of landscape fragmentation in Wuhu.The transfer matrix and the unstable patch map were applied to analyze the changes and stability of landscape types.Finally，the driving forces were identified.The results showed that：the landscape types in Wuhu were mainly cultivated land，forest land，construction land and water area.The landscape index showed that the landscape pattern had changed significantly in the past 20 years.The transformation of various land landscapes was obvious，and the transformation relationship became more complex with time，the cultivated land area was reduced，the increase of forest land gradually replaced the dominant position of cultivated land，cultivated land and forest land were the most important transferor and transferred reader.The transfer probability of grassland and unused land was the highest，and it was easiest to transform.Within 20 years" span，the fragmentation of landscape pattern in Wuhu was accelerated and deepened，and showed instability in both time and space.These changes were combined with the precipitation and temperature changes，population and socioeconomic growth，and government decisionmaking and other factors.